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Macro Outlook

Macro Outlook

Get the latest insights on key economic developments.

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FX Focus

Read the latest insights and UOB's house views on foreign exchange markets.

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Market PowerBar

December 2023

In our December report, we cover the following topics:

  • Low jobless claims show US economy remains resilient
  • Tech sector outlook favours software companies
  • Asia’s consumers will be a bright spot
Thinking Ahead

Is the rate hike cycle near an end?

The US Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its policy meeting. While US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that he is not yet confident that interest rates are sufficiently high to slow inflation down, the Fed suggested that the rate hike cycle is near the end. Learn more in our latest Thinking Ahead report.

    Market PowerBar

    November 2023

    In our November report, we cover the following topics:

    • United States government shutdown is looming, but impact may be limited
    • Bear steepening of yield curve is a concern for investors
    • Conflict in the Middle East sparks concern over global oil supply
    Market PowerBar

    October 2023

    In our October report, we cover the following topics:

    • Weakening services sector suggests slower growth ahead
    • Consumers are less sensitive to rate changes
    • Favour higher bond quality and longer duration
    Market PowerBar

    September 2023

    In our September report, we cover the following topics:

    • The United States economy delivered upside surprises in 2Q
    • Take a closer look at income investing
    • Time in the market beats timing the market
    Thinking Ahead

    Key takeaways from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

    US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasised in his annual Jackson Hole address that the fight against inflation is not over. Upcoming job market and economic growth data will be closely watched for their implications on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. Learn more in our latest Thinking Ahead report.

      Market PowerBar

      August 2023

      In our August report, we cover the following topics:

      • Stay cautious about the United States stock market rally
      • The healthcare sector presents opportunities
      • Take a closer look at the diversity of the healthcare industry
      Thinking Ahead

      China’s Politburo meeting: Potential impact on the economy

      China’s leaders signalled more policy support at the latest meeting of the country’s top decision-making body. What impact will this have on the economy? Learn more in our latest Thinking Ahead report.

        Market Outlook

        ST Invest Talk Podcast: Analysing the investing outlook for the second half of 2023

        Learn more about key market developments to watch in 2H 2023 in this podcast featuring Abel Lim, Head of Wealth Management Advisory and Strategy at UOB, and Straits Times Associate Editors Lee Su Shyan and Ven Sreenivasan.

          Market Outlook

          2H 2023 Market Outlook - Forging Resilience: Strength in Demanding Conditions

          Learn how you can fortify your investment portfolio and capture today’s market opportunities in our 2H 2023 Market Outlook publication. Discover the outlook for the economy, markets, interest rates and more in the full report.

            Market PowerBar

            June 2023

            In our June report, we cover the following topics:

            • The Federal Reserve (Fed) may be close to ending its rate hikes
            • A resolution is in sight for the US debt ceiling standoff
            • Find opportunities arising from China’s recovery amid the global growth slowdown
            Thinking Ahead

            Have we reached the end of the rate hike cycle?

            Will the US Federal Reserve pause its rate hikes or even cut rates later this year? This has significant implications on the banking and commercial real estate sectors, which are facing challenges in this high interest rate environment. Learn more in our latest Thinking Ahead report.

              Market PowerBar

              May 2023

              In our May report, we cover the following topics:

              • What recession indicators are telling us
              • Frequently released economic indicators offer timely clues about the economy
              • Investors can consider positioning for the next market upcycle
              Market PowerBar

              April 2023

              In our April report, we cover the following topics:

              • Where are interest rates headed with banking sector troubles?
              • How do different asset classes perform when interest rates change?
              • Investors should maintain diversified portfolios when making investment decisions
              Thinking Ahead

              What’s next after the Credit Suisse takeover?

              The Swiss government brokered a historic deal for UBS to rescue Credit Suisse, to prevent confidence in the banking sector from further eroding. What does this mean for investors? Learn more in our latest Thinking Ahead report.

                Market PowerBar

                March 2023

                In our March report, we cover the following topics:

                • Maintaining our case for Asia ex-Japan
                • Unintended spillover effects of China’s reopening
                • ASEAN markets could continue to perform in 2023
                Thinking Ahead

                Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and China’s National People’s Congress meeting

                Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse has roiled markets, which were still in the midst of dissecting China’s recent National People’s Congress meeting. Learn more about the implications of these global events in our latest Thinking Ahead report.

                  Market Outlook

                  UOB Privilege Conversations: Key Takeaways

                  Our experts and speakers from BlackRock and J.P. Morgan Asset Management outlined key strategies to consider in this volatile market environment at the UOB Privilege Conversations Investment Forum. Discover key takeaways shared by the speakers.

                    Market PowerBar

                    February 2023

                    In our February report, we cover the following topics:

                    • Bonds are a bright spot
                    • Asia ex-Japan stocks are well positioned to outperform
                    • What factors could result in growth stocks generating superior returns?
                    Market PowerBar

                    December 2022

                    In our December report, we cover the following topics:

                    • Seasonal trends can sometimes be observed in stock markets, but investors should not make decisions based on them.
                    • After a tough year, there are signs the stock market may be reaching a bottom.
                    • Investors are on the lookout for sectors that typically outperform during an economic rebound.
                    Thinking Ahead

                    What the US midterm elections could mean for markets

                    What should investors watch out for as voters head to the polls for the United States midterm elections on 8 November 2022? Does the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate hike pose further risks to economic growth? Find out more in our latest Thinking Ahead report

                      Market PowerBar

                      November 2022

                      We cover the following topics:

                      • The risk of a United States recession is rising, but any economic downturn would likely be mild.
                      • Persistently high inflation reduces the purchasing power of your cash and erodes your wealth over time.
                      • Earnings growth expectations for Chinese stocks have been depressed by negative news, which means there could be upside in the Chinese market.
                      Thinking Ahead

                      What's next for the China market?

                      Markets fell sharply after China’s 20th National Congress concluded, stemming from concerns about economic growth and how market-friendly the Chinese Community Party’s new leadership would be. Learn more about the outlook for the Chinese market, as well as key developments investors should watch.

                        Market PowerBar

                        October 2022

                        We cover the following topics:

                        • More accommodative monetary policy in Asia can lend support to stocks
                        • Asian economies with a greater reliance on domestic demand may better withstand developed markets’ slower growth
                        • For China, focus on the valuations and trends of sectors with bigger weights in the benchmark index
                        Market PowerBar

                        September 2022

                        We cover the following topics:

                        • Investing for income can help you withstand the volatile environment
                        • Build resilient income portfolios with quality bonds
                        • Enhance your income returns by diversifying into dividend-yielding stocks
                        Thinking Ahead

                        Will interest rates continue to rise?

                        Key takeaways from the Jackson Hole Symposium

                        Stock markets sold off sharply after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned that interest rates will likely stay elevated for some time, even if this causes “some pain” to households and businesses. Find out how you should position your investments to navigate this volatile environment.

                          Thinking Ahead

                          Recession risks and rate hikes

                          Stay nimble amid recession risks and rate hikes

                          With the United States economy slipping into a technical recession and the US Federal Reserve cautioning that another “unusually large” interest rate hike could be on the cards at its next meeting, it is critical that investors stay nimble and think ahead in this uncertain market landscape.

                            Market PowerBar

                            August 2022

                            We cover the following topics:

                            • Stock and bond prices should return to having an inverse correlation as inflation subsides
                            • Seek refuge in investment grade corporate bonds as uncertainty persists
                            • Asia ex-Japan stocks still present attractive opportunities

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                            2H 2023 Market Outlook

                            2H 2023 Market Outlook

                            Learn how you can fortify your investment portfolio and capture today’s market opportunities.

                            UOB House View

                            Discover our latest insights on the global macroeconomic environment, asset allocation, equities, fixed income, commodities, foreign exchange and interest rates.

                            Global Economics and Markets Research

                            Stay up to date on the latest global and regional news, economic developments and more.

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                            Our Risk-First Approach

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                            Important notice and disclaimers

                            The information contained in this publication is given on a general basis without obligation and is strictly for information purposes only. This publication is not intended to be, and should not be regarded as, an offer, recommendation, solicitation or advice to buy or sell any investment or insurance product and shall not be transmitted, disclosed, copied or relied upon by any person for whatever purpose. Any description of investment or insurance products, if any, is qualified in its entirety by the terms and conditions of the investment or insurance product and if applicable, the prospectus or constituting document of the investment or insurance product. Nothing in this publication constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial or other advice. If in doubt, you should consult your own professional advisers about issues discussed herein.


                            The information contained in this publication, including any data, projections and underlying assumptions, are based on certain assumptions, management forecasts and analysis of known information and reflects prevailing conditions as of the date of the publication, all of which are subject to change at any time without notice. Although every reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy and objectivity of the information contained in this publication, United Overseas Bank Limited (“UOB”) and its employees make no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory, and shall not be responsible or liable for its completeness or accuracy. As such, UOB and its employees accept no liability for any error, inaccuracy, omission or any consequence or any loss/damage howsoever suffered by any person, arising from any reliance by any person on the views expressed or information contained in this publication.


                            Any opinions, projections and other forward looking statements contained in this publication regarding future events or performance of, including but not limited to, countries, markets or companies are not necessarily indicative of, and may differ from actual events or results. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person. Investors may wish to seek advice from an independent financial advisor before investing in any investment or insurance product. Should you choose not to seek such advice, you should consider whether the investment or insurance product in question is suitable for you.


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