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Foreword by CIO
As we enter the second quarter of 2026, we remain constructive on risk assets, while acknowledging a bumpier path ahead. Our core positioning stays overweight US and Emerging Market equities, neutral Japan and Europe, with income as a portfolio stabiliser and private markets approached selectively. Markets continue to be guided by earnings, liquidity and policy rather than geopolitical headlines.
That said, we are mindful of risks — particularly the possibility of a prolonged energy shock. Sustained supply disruptions and higher oil prices could place pressure on corporate earnings. While history shows that geopolitical events often lead to temporary market pullbacks rather than lasting downturns, today’s environment is less forgiving with greater oil shocks, less economic buffers and greater sensitivity to earnings outcomes.
Against this backdrop, our approach is balanced but not defensive: stay invested, stay selective, and remain focused on fundamentals. I encourage you to speak with your Senior Client Advisor for tailored guidance on positioning your portfolio for the evolving environment.
Thank you for your continued trust — we look forward to partnering with you through 2026 and beyond.
Dr Neo Teng Hwee
Chief Investment Officer and
Head of Investment Products and Solutions
UOB Private Bank
Outlook at a glance
Key themes to watch
Conflict in the Gulf
The Gulf conflict has lasted longer than expected, with energy prices remaining the main risk to markets, particularly in Asia. While prolonged disruptions could weigh on growth and sentiment, we remain constructive overall, supported by resilient US earnings, and see market pullbacks as opportunities — particularly in Emerging Markets Asia.
The AI shock to software
AI disruption is often portrayed as all‑or‑nothing, but the reality is a year-long shake-out. While more generic software may face pricing pressure, companies that adapt quickly and use AI well – especially those with strong data, distribution and customer trust – are likely to emerge stronger. Areas such as cybersecurity should remain resilient, as demand stays essential even as competition increases.
A physical capacity-constrained world
Physical constraints are increasingly shaping today’s investment cycle, as rising AI adoption, energy needs and supply‑chain shifts stretch available capacity. While digital and intangible assets remain important, real‑world bottlenecks increasingly shape outcomes. As a result, companies that control critical infrastructure and scarce resources are benefiting, though leadership is likely to evolve as new capacity comes onstream.
Asset allocation for 2Q 2026
Discover more insights
Report
Resilience amid global complexity
Discover our 2Q 2026 Investment Outlook for perspectives on global macro trends, sector themes and opportunities shaping today’s shifting markets.
Podcast
Resilience amid global complexity — 2Q 2026 Investment Outlook
How should investors position their portfolios amid geopolitical events, extreme headlines and market volatility? In this episode of Market Pulse, Kelly Chia, Head of Investment Strategy, shares perspectives on the 2Q Investment Outlook, the key risks we are watching closely, and how investors can stay positioned for an evolving environment.
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It takes a shared vision and focus to achieve all you aspire to.
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