Global macro

Amidst the “bumpy” ride in inflation and the latest string of stronger-than-expected US macro figures like the Mar ISM, investors have started to question whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) is indeed able to start rate cuts in June and whether it will be able to deliver the three cuts this year as signaled by the latest Dot Plot. We keep to our existing forecast of 3 x 25 bps cuts from the Fed this year starting from Jun but the risk on balance is increasingly skewed towards lesser.