FX 2019 Outlook: Will the USD continue to race ahead or will it start losing steam? UOB FX experts weigh in.

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    28 November 2018

    Key Takeaways

    • Global growth is moving at a moderate pace while recession is still some way off.
    • In 2019, the Fed is expected to further hike interest rates, though at a slower pace.
    • While the sterling will continue to be weak due to Brexit woes, the Euro will stabilise
    • As a result of domestic contraction, the RMB and the SGD will continue to remain weak against the USD.

    5 mins read


    SMEs must factor currency risks into their business strategy

    A currency is often the barometer of a country’s economy. Whenever there is a major event - be it political, economic, a force of nature, or just a tweet - the currency is the first to react. Yet all too often, it is the last thing that business managers focus on.

    Brexit and the US-China trade war have proved this point, with the British pound, US dollar and Chinese yuan all victims of sudden moves in both directions. Such volatility makes it almost impossible to predict the value of a currency tomorrow, let alone over a 30- to 90-day period when most business transactions will be settled.

    This causes significant risks to companies involved in international trade. Risks are greater for small- and medium-sized businesses (SME) where products and clients are less diversified than for multinationals. Therefore, SMEs need to actively manage currency risk to protect their bottom line.


    A risk management framework is key

    1. Determine your exposure : How much of your business is overseas - whether that is buying raw materials or selling finished goods? Previous trading and the average time frame to clear bills should offer a basis to analyse one's currency exposure.

    2. Choose the correct strategy : How complex should your hedging structure be, bearing in mind that doing nothing is itself a decision - and one that carries risk? Should you hedge your entire exposure, or just some?

    3. Regular review : Is the strategy adequate for the current economic conditions and outlook? Hedging strategies come with various degrees of flexibility and complexity, so they must be reviewed regularly as market conditions change constantly.

    A higher percentage of FX transactions, and/or a longer clearance on payments, means a greater need for risk management.


    Use spot and forward contracts: Protect your buy and sell prices

    Firstly, here are some simple definitions of the terminology used to explain FX contracts.

    FX terminologyDefinition
    Spot contract An agreement to buy or sell a currency at an agreed-upon rate to be utilised immediately or within 2 business days.
    Forward contract An agreement to buy or sell a currency at an agreed-upon rate for a future date specified in the contract.
    Limit order The commitment to buy or sell currency at an agreed-upon rate should it be reached.

    Let’s say you need to buy or sell in a foreign currency within a short turnaround time. One solution is to buy a “spot” FX contract with your bank, which can be executed immediately or within 2 business days. However, it requires adequate funds in your account at the time of execution.

    More precision is achieved by matching the FX transaction exactly with the payment date, using a “forward contract.” The FX rate is immediately guaranteed, even though payment is delayed until a specified future date. This acts to lock in profit margins and improves cash flow.

    When your company wins an order, you have already prepared a calculation to build in that profit. If that involves imports or exports, a currency value must be applied to those goods, even though payment is unlikely for at least a month. Using FX solutions allows you to lock in currency values with accuracy while also matching delivery and payment dates.


    Your banking partner can help

    Analysing and anticipating market movements require FX expertise, which many business managers do not have. This is where financial experts can help – UOB FX specialists, armed with UOB’s in-depth research, can provide advice on strategy and execution, incorporating views on the direction and timing of markets. In this way, SMEs can use a more disciplined and tactical approach to hedging.

    For importers and exporters, forward contracts provide a hedge against the risk of fluctuations in currency exchange rates, which may occur between the time the contract for sale is made and the time when payment is actually received.

    More complex strategies are available, such as limit orders, a commitment to transact at a chosen level should it be reached, are an available option as well. However, this should not be considered until basic currency management has been mastered with spot and forward contracts.

    All successful SMEs follow a structured business strategy that includes forward planning, with the intention to protect one's costs or profits from currency fluctuations as well. At UOB, we offer dedicated support from FX specialists to advise SMEs on managing foreign-exchange risk and helping them to secure preferential rates. Contact us today to learn more.



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